The Likelihood of Being TRUE? (Scientist, Consultant, or Truth Seeker)

September 4, 2013

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Clients want to know “What is true?”, while statistical tests offer the likelihood that a relationship in the data could have been “caused by random error.”  The fact that the question and answer don’t line up is usually responded to by quoting textbook doctrine about what statistics can demonstrate and is then followed by adopting […]

Ideas for improving already good models

November 17, 2010

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You’re working on the MAIN MODEL. The one that leverages half the company’s assets, and on which your paycheck and that of many others depends. You’ve already run through a stepwise, forward, and backward search of the variables, their interactions, and possible curvatures. What are the most productive things to do next? Here are a […]

Tips for Using Cluster Analysis to Segment Markets (CASS)

November 17, 2010

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THE GOAL: When segmenting markets the objective is to find distinct groups of consumers who are similar to each other on multiple variables of “interest”.  If that lofty goal is realized, then products and marketing programs can be designed to appeal to desirable consumer groups so that when CONSUMERS select between you and your competitors, […]

Useful Formulas for Non-Linear Regression

November 17, 2010

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One of the challenges of Non-Linear Regression modeling is coming up with a formula that easily converges, uses a minimum of parameters, and has the right balance of flexibility and inflexibility to model the problem without over fitting it. For me, and I suspect for others, that can be quite a challenge. Let’s all share […]

Statistical Modeling is like building with LEGOS

November 17, 2010

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LEGOS: 1. Square red pieces can be stacked to build towers. 2. Long skinny pieces can be used as roads. 3. Long skinny pieces on top of square red towers can build bridges. 4. Curved skinny pieces can make turning roads or bridges. 5. Tubes, motors, wheels, etc. can make pretty much anything you can […]

The Most Important and Least Thought about Variable: The Dependent

November 17, 2010

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All the hard work we put into the “model” on the right hand side of the model equation is only as accurate as the dependent variable was to start with in reflecting the business problem at hand. Yet…. No statistics class I ever took said the first word about the dependent variable and, in practice […]

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